ACSI Presidential Election Survey: October 31 to November 3, 2016
As a tumultuous election season draws to a close, ACSI’s latest polling shows the two presidential candidates in positions that vary little from initial surveys conducted early August. With just days to go before November 8, Democrat Hillary Clinton’s projected voter share stands at 48% to Republican Donald Trump’s 41%. This final popular vote count is closely aligned with ACSI’s inaugural survey projection of Clinton 49% and Trump 39%.
Over the course of the survey cycle, Clinton consistently has shown an advantage over Trump, with the narrowest spread occurring just after Labor Day (5 points). In the election’s final week, the gap is 7 points in Clinton’s favor.
The ACSI survey characterizes supporters as “strong” or “weak” depending on the gap in both satisfaction and expectations for each of the candidates. In the polling conducted between October 31 and November 3, 2016, Clinton loses some strong support, down 4 points to 35%, while Trump shows a slight uptick to 29%. For weak support, both candidates gain 2 points but remain nearly deadlocked at 13% (Clinton) and 12% (Trump). Undecideds increase for a second week to 12%.
The final demographic breakdowns of voter share have Clinton ahead in nearly every age, gender, and ethnic category. Consistent with most prior weeks of polling, Trump carries the advantage among older voters and those with less than a college degree.
The ACSI surveyed 1,543 registered voters nationwide from October 31 to November 3, 2016, for a total of 15,220 since polling began on August 1, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points for voter share.